Fact Sheet 039-03

Is a Powerful Quake Likely to Strike in the Next 30 Years?

Andrew J. Michael, Stephanie L. Ross, Robert W. Simpson, Mary Lou Zoback, David P. Schwartz, Michael L. Blanpied, and Working Group 2002

Using newly collected data and evolving theories of earthquake occurrence, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists now conclude that there is a 62% probability of at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing widespread damage, striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2032. A major quake can occur in any part of this densely populated region. Therefore, there is an ongoing need for all communities in the Bay region to continue preparing for the quakes that will strike in the future.

See Fact Sheet 039-03 in its entirety.