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Ended 2011

Coastal and Marine Catastrophic Hazards

See new projects:

  • Coastal and Marine Earthquake, Tsunami, and Landslide Active Margin Field Studies
  • Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes and Earthquake Effects

Overview

As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the societal impacts of these hazards are expected to grow. This project develops a strategy for optimizing our efforts by assisting broader hazard programs within the USGS and externally while maintaining a focus on marine and coastal regions. Goals are realistically achievable over a 5-10 year period. Products are intended to support the development of regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. CMGP staff have experience interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake probabilities (WGCEP), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence in the definition of CMGP priorities and the development of program objectives, and this plan is designed to have the research flexibility needed to ensure continued CMGP responsiveness to the needs of the broader hazards research and management community. As such, the plan is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish priorities for future regional studies and define knowedge and information gaps that the CMGP is best suited to address. Outcome statement: The near-term aim of this project is to see our science directly impact the public through hazard forecasts and other decision-making efforts. Longer term, we will provide peer-reviewed published research efforts that incrementally improve our ability to mitigate geologic hazards via new tools and observations. Near-term forecasts:

  1. Project staff will work closely with the California Earthquake Authority (CEA: sets earthquake insurance rates) funded Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) to complete a statewide assessment by mid-2007. Provided will be new observations of offshore fault zones, deformation models, and probabilistic methodology.
  2. Project staff will work with NOAA and FEMA to develop probabilistic tsunami inundation forecasts.

Start/End Dates

10/1/2005 - 9/30/2015 (Ended 2011)

Location

Global

Investigators

  • Parsons, Tom, Geophysicist, Project Chief
  • Childs, Jon, Geophysicist
  • Geist, Eric, Geophysicist
  • Jaffe, Bruce, Oceanographer
  • Kayen, Rob, Civil Engineer
  • Lee, Homa, Civil Engineer
  • Ross, Stephanie, Geophysicist
  • Ryan, Holly, Geologist
Illustrated map of the San Francisco Bay Area, showing the region's earthquake probability.

Figure caption for above illustration: Probabilities (shown in boxes) of one or more major (M>=6.7) earthquakes on faults in the San Francisco Bay Region during the coming 30 years. The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032. Knowing this will help people make informed decisions as they continue to prepare for future quakes. For more information, please see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/wg02/index.php

Objectives

The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP) is unique among federal science programs in providing the geologic competencies required to develop the science base for policy and management relating to a broad array of issues. Program resources are applied to describe and understand the geology and geologic processes that occur along the U.S. and territorial coasts. Critical national interests requiring expertise maintained within the CMGP include hazards related to earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami served as an unfortunate reminder of the deadly impact of, and interrelation between coastal and marine earthquakes and tsunamis. In addition, submarine landslides have caused some of the highest-amplitude tsunami waves ever observed. All U.S. and territorial coastlines are vulnerable to these local and remote hazards. Although the USGS has national Earthquake, Volcano, Landslide, and Earth Surface Processes programs, and NOAA has a tsunami program, these programs do not cover the unique aspects (process and operational) of hazards in coastal and marine realms. Nor do they provide the required expertise in coastal and marine geology and geophysics. Application of the competencies maintained by the CMGP is an essential element of a coordinated effort to understand hazards and to develop scientifically sound assessments of the likelihood of loss of life, infrastructure, and property from catastrophic geologic events associated with coastal and marine geologic processes.

Approach

Under this project three major research tasks are identified:

  1. coastal and marine earthquake sources,
  2. coastal and marine ground failure and earthquake effects, and
  3. tsunami occurrence and effects.

A situational rapid-response task is also proposed. Below, the goals of these tasks and expected products are identified. The tasks are designed to maximize interaction and communication. Data collection is driven by modeling and analysis tasks that are in turn driven by the overarching objective of developing enhanced hazard assessment products.

Tasks and SubTasks

  • Coastal and Marine earthquake sources
    • Mapping of offshore fault zones
    • Coastal and marine deformation
    • Earthquake physics and probability
    • California offshore Quaternary fault database
  • Coastal and marine ground failure and earthquake effects
    • Topographic, tectonic, and geologic controls on landslides along the Pacific Coast (Completed FY 2008; continued in next subtask)
    • Coastal and marine landslides: monitoring 3-D slope stability
    • Urban Coastal and Nearshore Earthquake Ground Motion Response and Soil Deformation
    • Coastal and Near Shoreline Submarine Landslides
    • Marine landslide-Initiation, Dynamic Displacement, and Initial Tsunami Wave Amplitude Potentia
    • Coastal Landslide hazards from storm and wave impacts
  • Tsunami occurrence and effects
    • Tsunami Deposit Modeling and Interpretation
    • Tsunami Source Characterization for Warning Systems and Assessment
    • Tsunami Generation Modeling & Probabilistic Analysis
  • Rapid response and impact assessment
  • Tsunami risk in the Urban Earth: a component of a multi-hazards demonstration project in Southern California
Arias Intensity Assessment of
Liquefaction Test Sites on the
East Side of San Francisco Bay
Affected by the Loma Prieta, California,
Earthquake of 17 October 1989

Schematic of San Francisco east-bay shoreline showing areas where sand boils, structural damage, lateral spreading, and settlement occurred from the October 17 1989 erthquake.

Products

Abreu, R., Asencio, E., Ross, S., Michael, A., and Baher, S., 2003, Earthquake relocation intitiatives of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) database, Seismological Research Letters, v. 74, p. 272.

Barnhardt, W.A. and Kayen, R.E., 1999, Internal Structure of Earthquake-Induced Landslides in Anchorage, Alaska [abs.], Seismological Research Letters, V. 70 (2), p. 231-2.

Barnhardt, W.A. and R. E. Kayen, 2000, Radar Structure of earthquake-induced coastal landslides in Anchorage, Alaska, Amer. Assoc. Pet. Geol. Environmental Geosciences, v. 7, p. 38-45.

Barnhardt, W. A., R. E. Kayen, S. Ashford, and K. Rollins, 2000, Blast-induced liquefaction and determination of soil-density changes with ground-penetrating radar, Treasure Island, CA [abs.], Seismological Research Letters, v. 71, p. 248.

Barnhardt, W., Kayen, R., Rubin, D., and Minasian. D. (2001) The internal structure of sand bars on the Colorado River, Grand Canyon, as determined by ground-penetrating radar, USGS OFR 01-425. [View online]

Barth, G. A., B. C. Beaudoin, J. A. Hole, T. Parsons, and S. L. Klemperer, 1999, Mapping the base of the crust near the northern end of the San Andreas fault system, northern California [abs.], EOS, Transaction of the American Geophysical Union, v. 80, p. F706.

Bohannon, R. G. and T. Parsons, Tectonic implications of post-30 Ma Pacific and North American relative plate motions, Geological Society of America Bulletin, 107, pp. 937-959, 1995. [Printable article (1.2 Mb)]

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, and R. J. Blakely, 2001, Simultaneous tomography and gravity inversion for Tertiary basin geometry beneath Puget Lowland, Washington, [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 82, p.F857.

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, and R. J. Blakely, 2002, A simple algorithm for sequentially incorporating gravity to enhance seismic traveltime tomography: application to the upper-crustal structure in Puget Lowland, Washington, [abs]:, Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, v. 34.

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, and R. J. Blakely, 2002, Three-dimensional upper crustal structure in the Puget Lowland, Washington: Incorporating Bouguer gravity to enhance seismic traveltime tomography, [abs]: Seismological Research Letters, v. 73, p. 256-257.

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, R. E. Blakely, N. I. Christensen, M. A. Fisher, and R. E. Wells, 2001, Upper crustal structure in Puget Lowland, Washington: Results from the 1998 Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 13541-13564.[Printable article (8.3 Mb)]

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, R. J. Blakely, M. A. Fisher, R. E. Wells, N. I. Christensen, and SHIPS Working Group, 2000, Evidence for the Tacoma Fault in the Puget Lowland, Washington: Results From the 1998 Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS), [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 81, p.F871.

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, R. J. Blakely, R. E. Wells, and M. A. Fisher, 2001, New Insights on Crustal Faults in the Puget Lowland, Washington from the SHIPS, Gravity, and Aeromagnetic Surveys, [abs]: Seismological Research Letters, v. 72.

Brocher, T.M., T. Parsons, K. C. Creager, R. S. Crosson, N. P. Symmons, G. D. Spence, B. C. Zelt, P. T. C. Hammer, R. D. Hyndman, D. C. Mosher, A. M. Trehu, K. C. Miller, U. S. t. Brink, M. A. Fisher, T. L. Pratt, M. G. Alvarez, B. C. Beaudoin, K. E. Louden and C. S. Weaver, 1999, Wide-angle seismic recordings from the 1998 seismic hazards investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), western Washington and British Columbia, USGS Open File Report, 99-314, pp. 1-110. [Online summary with PDF download available]

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, M. A. Fisher, M. A., R. J. Blakely, R. C. Jachens, and C. M. Wentworth, 2001, Strategies for Building Regional Crustal Velocity Models: Examples from the San Francisco Bay Area and Puget Lowland, [abs]: Seismological Research Letters, v. 72.

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, A. M. Tréhu, R. S. Crosson, C. M. Snelson, and M. A. Fisher, 2003, Seismic evidence for widespread serpentinized forearc upper mantle along the Cascadia Margin: Geology, v. 31, p. 267-270.

Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, A. M. Tréhu, C. M. Snelson, and M. A. Fisher, 2002, Seismic evidence for widespread serpentinized forearc upper mantle along the Cascadia Margin, [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 83. [Printable article (960 kb)]

Cetin, K.O., Seed, R.B., Armen Der Kiureghian, M., Tokimatsu, K., Harder, L.F. Jr., Kayen, R.E., and Idriss, I.M., 2000, SPT-Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of Seismic Soil Liquefaction Hazard, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Report No. PEER-2000/05, p.p. 68.

Cetin, K.O., Seed, R.B., Moss, R.E.S., Armen Der Kiureghian, M., Tokimatsu, K., Harder, L.F. Jr., Kayen, R.E., and Idriss, I.M., 2000, Field Case Histories for SPT-Based In Situ Liquefaction Potential Evaluation, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Report No. Geotechnical Engineering Research Report No. UCB/GT-2000/09, p.p. 471.

Childs, J. R., Hart, P. E., Sliter, R, Bruns, T. R., and Marlow, M., 2000, High-resolution marine seismic reflection data from the San Francisco Bay area: 1993-1997, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report, 00-494. [View online]

Crosson, R. S., N. P. Symons, T. Van Wagoner, G. F. Medema, K. C .Creager, L. A. Preston, T. M. Brocher, T. Parsons, M. Fisher, A. Trehu, K. Miller, and SHIPS Working Group, 2000, 3-D Velocity Structure of the Cascadia Forearc region from tomographic inversion: Results from full integration of data from multiple active source experiments and earthquake observations in Washington, [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 81, p.F870-F871.

Eberhart-Phillips, D., P.J. Haeussler, J. T. Freymueller, A. D. Frankel, C. M. Rubin, P. Craw, N. A. Ratchkovski, G. Anderson, G. A. Carver, A. J. Crone, T. E. Dawson, H. Fletcher, R. Hansen, E. I. Harp, R. A. Harris, D. P. Hill, S. Hreinsdóttir, R. W. Jibson, L. M. Jones, R. Kayen, D. K. Keefer, C. F. Larsen, S. C. Moran, S. F. Personius, G. Plafker, B. Sherrod, K. Sieh, N. Sitar, and W. K. Wallace, 2003, The 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska: A large magnitude, slip-partitoned event, Science, 300 (5622), 1113-1118.

Ellsworth, W.L., Beroza, G.C., Julian, B.R., Klein, F., Michael, A.J., Oppenheimer, D.H., Prejean, S.G., Richards-Dinger, K., Ross, S.L., Schaff, D.P., Waldhauser, F., 2000, Seismicity of the San Andreas fault system in central California: application of the double-difference location algorithm on a regional scale [abs.], Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. U., v. 81, p. F919.

Evans, J. R., T.M. Brocher, R. D. Catchings, J. B. Fletcher, ,T. L. Holzer, A. G. Lindh, W. D. Mooney, T. Parsons, F. Pollitz, and C. M. Wentworth, A. D. Frankel, S. Hartzell, and R. A. Williams, 2004, Holistic Modeling of the Santa Clara "Silicon" Valley, Central California, Based on Inadequate, Inhomogeneous, Incompatible Data, Seismological Research Letters, v. 74, p. 258.

Fisher,M.A., T.M. Brocher, R. D. Hyndman, A. M. Trehu, C. S. Weaver, K. C. Creager, R. S. Crosson, T. Parsons, A. K. Cooper, D. Mosher, G. Spence, B. C. Zelt, P. T. Hammer, U. t. Brink, T. L. Preatt, K. C. Miller, J. R. Childs, G. R. Cochrane, S. Chopra and R. Wailia, 1999, Seismic survey probes urban earthquake hazards in Pacific Northwest, EOS, Transactions AGU, 104, pp. 13-17.

Fisher, M. A., A. J. Calvert, T. Parsons, R. E. Wells, T. M. Brocher, C. S. Weaver, and SHIPS Working Group, 2000, Crustal Structure From SHIPS Seismic Reflection Data Along a Transect from the Southern Puget Lowland North to the San Juan Islands, [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 81, p.F878.

M. A. Fisher, E. R. Flueh, D. W. Scholl, T. Parsons, R. E. Wells, A. Trehu, U. tenBrink and C. S. Weaver, 1999, Geologic processes of accretion: Cascadia subduction zone west of Washington State, Journal of Geodynamics, 27, pp. 277-288.

FISHER, Michael A., GREENE, H. Gary, LEE, Homa J., and SLITER, Ray, 2005, GEOLOGY OF SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES BELOW SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THEIR POTENTIAL TSUNAMI HAZARD, 2005 GSA Cordilleran Section - 101st Annual Meeting San Jose Paper No. 41-13
http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/posters/santabarbara.html

Fisher, M.A., Greene, H.G., Normark, W.R., and Sliter, R.W., 2005, Neotectonics of the offshore Oak Ridge fault near Ventura, southern California: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 95, no. 2, p. 739-744, doi:10.1785/0120040126.

FISHER, Michael A., LANGENHEIM, Victoria E., SORLIEN, Christopher C., COCHRANE, Guy R., SLITER, Ray, WONG, Florence L., and DARTNELL, Peter, 2005, RECENT DEFORMATION ALONG THE OFFSHORE MALIBU COAST, DUME AND RELATED FAULTS WEST OF POINT DUME, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, 2005 GSA Cordilleran Section - 101st Annual Meeting San Jose Paper No. 9-3.

Fisher, M.A., Nokleberg, W.J., Ratchkovski, N.A., Pellerin, Louise, Glen, J.M., Brocher, T.M., and Booker, John, 2004, Geophysical investigation of the Denali fault and Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the October-November 2002, M=7.9 Denali fault earthquake: Geology, v. 32, no. 3, p. 269-272.

Fisher, M.A., Normark, W.R., Langenheim, V.E., Calvert, A.J., and Sliter, Ray, 2004, The offshore Palos Verdes fault zone near San Pedro, southern California: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 94, no. 2, p. 506-530.

Fisher, M.A., Normark, W.R., Bohannon, R.G., Sliter, R.W., and Calvert, A.J., 2003, Geology of the continental margin beneath Santa Monica Bay, Southern California, from seismic-reflection data: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 93, p. 1955-1983.

Fisher, M.A., Normark, W.R., Langenheim, V.E., Calvert, A.J., and Sliter, Ray, 2004, Marine geology and earthquake hazards of the San Pedro Shelf region, southern California: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1687 [View online]

Fisher, M.A., Ratchkovski, N.A., Nokleberg, W.J., Pellerin, Louise, and Glen, J.M.G., 2004, Geophysical data reveal the crustal structure of the Alaska Range orogen within the aftershock zone of the MW 7.9 Denali fault earthquake: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 94, no. 6B, p. S107-S131.

Fisher, Michael A., RATCHKOVSKI, Natalia, WELLS, Ray E., EBERHART-PHILLIPS, Donna M., BLAKELY, Richard J., SLITER, Ray, and GEIST, Eric L., 2005, SEISMOTECTONICS OF THE RUPTURE ZONE OF THE 1964 MW=9.2 GREAT ALASKA EARTHQUAKE, 2005 GSA Cordilleran Section - 101st Annual Meeting San Jose Paper No. 9-4

Flueh, E., M. A. Fisher, J. Bialas, J. R. Childs, D. Klaeschen, N. Kukowski, T. Parsons, D. W. Scholl, U. t. Brink, A. M. Trehu and N. Vidal, 1998, New seismic images of the Cascadia subduction zone from Cruise SO108- ORWELL, Tectonophysics, 293, pp. 69-84.

Flueh, E., M. Fisher, D. Scholl, T. Parsons, U. t. Brink, D. Klaeschen, N. Kukowski, A. Trehu, J. Childs, J. Bialas and N. Vidal, 1997, Scientific teams analyze earthquake hazards of the Cascadia subduction zone, EOS, Transactions AGU, 78, pp. 153-157.

Geist, E. L., Tsunamis & Earthquakes at the USGS, USGS

Geist, E. L., Replica of the September 25, 2003 earthquake? 1952 Tokachi-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami, USGS

Geist, E. L., 1998, Source characteristics of the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami [abs.], EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 79 (supplement), p. F571.

Geist, E. L., 1999, A stochastic source model for estimating local tsunami hazards [abs.], Seismol. Res. Lett., v. 70, p. 221.

Geist, E. L., 1999, Combined influence of focal depth and slip distribution on local tsunami runup for subduction zone earthquakes [abs.], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 80 (supplement), p. F572.

Geist, E. L., 2000, A fractal source model for estimating local tsunami hazards [abs.], Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. U., v. 81, p. F566.

Geist, E. L. , 2000, Origin of the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami: Earthquake or Landslide? , Seismol. Res. Lett., v. 71, p. 344-351.

Geist, E. L., 2001, Modeling the natural complexity of local tsunamis, Proceedings, Int. Tsunami Symp. 2001, Seattle WA, p. 751-758.

Geist, E. L., 2001, Reply to comment by E. A. Okal and C. E. Synolakis on "Origin of the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami: Earthquake or landslide?" by E. L. Geist, Seismol. Res. Lett., v. 72, p. 367-372.

Geist, E. L. , 2002, Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis, J. Geophys. Res., v. 107, p. ESE 2-1 - ESE 2-15.

Geist, E.L., 2002, Re-examination of the 1975 Kalapana, Hawai'i tsunami using a fractal source model: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 47, p. F650.

Geist, E. L.: 2003, A framework for the probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards [abs.], Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 84, F813.

Geist, E. L., and D. J. Andrews, 2000, Slip rates on San Francisco Bay area fault from anelastic deformation of the continental lithosphere, J. Geophys. Res., v. 105, p. 25,543-25,552.

Geist, E. L., and Bilek, S. L., 2001, Effect of depth-dependent shear modulus on tsunami generation along subduction zones, Geophys. Res. Lett., v. 28, p. 1315-1318.

Geist, E. L., and S. L. Bilek, 2000, Effect of depth dependent shear modulus on tsunami generation [abs.], Seismol. Res. Lett., v. 71, p. 227.

Geist, E. L., and R. Dmowska, 1999, Local tsunamis and distributed slip at the source, Pure and Applied Geophysics, v. 154, p. 485-512.

Geist, E.L., Hirata, K., Satake, K., Tanioka, Y., and Yamaki, S., 2003, Reconciling source areas determine from aftershock and tsunami data: The M 8.1 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake along the Kuril subduction zone [abs.]: Seismological Research Letters, v. 74, p. 221.

Geist, E. L., Jakob, M., Wieczorek, G. F., and Dartnell, P., 2003: Preliminary Hydrodynamic Analysis of Landslide-Generated Waves in Tidal Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Open-File Report 03-411, U.S. Geological Survey, 20 pp. [Online summary]

Geist, E. L., Kikuchi, M., Hirata, K., Yoshioka, S., and Bilek, S., 2001, Modeling the 23 June 2001 Peru local tsunami using results from a quick seismic inversion of the earthquake, Proceedings, Int. Tsunami Symp. 2001, Seattle WA, p. 411-412.

Geist, E., Parsons, T., and Hirata, K., 2001, Tsunamigenic Aftershocks From Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes: An Example From the November 16, 2000 Mw=8.0 New Ireland, Papua New Guinea, Earthquake [abs.], Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. U., 82 (supplement), p. F850.

Geist, E. L. and Yoshioka, S., 2004: Effect of Structural Heterogeneity and Slip Distribution on Coseismic Vertical Displacement from Rupture on the Seattle Fault. Open-File Report 2004-1010, U.S. Geological Survey. [View online]

Geist, E. L., and Zoback, M. L., 1999, Analysis of the tsunami generated by the Mw 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Geology, v. 27, p. 15-18.

Geist, E.L., and Zoback, M.L., 2002, Examination of the tsunami generated by the 1906 San Francisco Mw = 7.8 earthquake, using new interpretations of the offshore San Andreas Fault, in Parsons, T., ed., Crustal Structure of the Coastal and Marine San Francisco Bay Region, California: USGS Professional Paper 1658, p. 29-42. [Online summary]

Harp, E. L. Jibson, R.W., Kayen, R.E., Keefer, D.K., Sherrod, B.S., Carver, G.A., Collins, B.D., Moss, R.E.S., and Sitar, N. (2003) Landslides and Liquefaction Triggered by the M7.9 Denali Fault Earthquake of 3 November 2002, GSA Today 13(8) p. 4-10.

Hart, P. E., T. Parsons, R. Sliter, and J. Childs, 1998, BASIX-III, Reflection data interpretations from the 1997 Bay Area Seismic Imaging eXperiment [abs.], 8th International Symposium on Deep Reflection Imaging of the Continents and their Margins, Barcelona, Spain.

Hirata, K., Geist, E., Satake, K., and Tanioka, Y., 2001, Re-examination of faulting process and tsunami generation of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.2) along the Kurile trench [abs.], Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. U., 82 (supplement), p. F819.

Hirata, K., E. L. Geist, K. Satake, Y. Tanioka, 2002, Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion [abs.]: Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, May 2002.

Hirata, Kenji, Geist, E.L., Satake, Kenji, Tanioka, Yuichiro, Takahashi, Hiroaki, 2003, Can micro-tsunami analysis be used as a new additional tool for earthquake location? [abs.]: International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly, Sapporo, Japan, June 30-July 11, 2003.

Hirata, K., Geist, E., Satake, K., Tanioka, Y., and Yamaki, S., 2003, Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion, J. Geophys. Res., v. 108, 2196, doi:10.1029/2002JB001976.

Hirata, K., Takahashi, E., Geist, E.L., Satake, K., Tanioka, Y., Sugioka, H., and Mikada, H., 2002, Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges and its use for earthquake source parameter studies [abs.]: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 47, p. F1008.

Hirata, K., Takahashi, H., Geist, E., Satake, K., Tanioka, Y., Sugioka, H., and Mikada, H., 2003, Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges; the January 28, 2000 Mw 6.8 earthquake off Nemuro Peninsula, Japan: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 208, no. 3-4, p. 305-318.

Hirata, Kenji, Takahashi, Hiroaki, Geist, E.L., Satake, Kenji, and Tanioka, Yuichiro, 2003, Earthquake source parameter study using micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges [abs.]: Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, Chiba, Japan, May 26-29, 2003.

Hirata, K., Tanioka, Y., Satake, K., Yamaki, S., and Geist, E. L., 2004 (in press): The tsunami source areas of 1952 and 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquakes [abs.]. AGU 2004 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting.

Hirata, K., Tanioka, Y., Satake, K., Yamaki, S., and Geist, E. L., 2004: The tsunami source area of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake estimated from tsunami travel times and its relationship to the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake [abs.]. 2004 Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting.

Hirata, K., Tanioka, Y., Satake, K., Yamaki, S., and Geist, E. L.: 2004, The tsunami source area of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake estimated from tsunami travel times and its relationship to the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake, Earth Planets Space. 56, 367-372.

Hole, J. A., T. M. Brocher, S. L. Klemperer, T. Parsons, H. M. Benz, and K. P. Furlong, 2000, Three-dimensional seismic velocity structure of the San Francisco Bay area, Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 105, p. 13,859-13,874. [Printable article (6.9 Mb)]

Holzer, T. L., and 23 contributors, 2000, Implications for earthquake risk reduction in the United States from the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1193. [Online summary]

Holzer, T.L., Wentworth, C.M., Bakun, W.H., Boatwright, J., Brocher, T.E., Celebi, M., Ellsworth, W.L., Fletcher, J.P.B., Geist, E.L., Graymer, R.W., Kayen, R.E., Keefer, D.K., Oppenheimer, D.H., Savage, W.U., Schwartz, D.P., and Simpson, R.W., 2002, Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting Mare Island, Solano County, California, USGS Open-File Report 02-425. [Online summary]

Kayen, R. (2001) Computation of Permanent Seismic Displacements in Soil, Proc. of the Joint Workshop on US-Japan Cooperative Research in Urban Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Topic 4-2 Risk Analysis and Advanced Technoologies for Infrastructures, January 8, 2001, Seattle, WA. Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, p. 65-67.

Kayen, R.E. (2001) Final Report To Pacific Gas & Electric Company: A Compliant & Multidirectional Newmark Model For Seismic Displacement Of Soft Ground, USGS Administrstive Report. 62p.

Kayen, R.E. (2001) Nisqually Earthquake, Mw=6.8 Puget Sound, Washington, USA, 28th February, 2001, Proc. 43rd Symposium, Lifeline Network of Kansai (LINK), Osaka, Japan, p. 17-30.

Kayen, R. (2001) Numerical Modeling and Field Testing for Analysis of Dynamic Displacements of the Ground, Proc. of the 2001 NCHU-Waseda Univ.-Kobe Univ. Joint Seminar on Earthquake Engineering, Dec. 17, 2001, College of Engineering, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan. 10 p.

Kayen, R. E., N. A. Abrahamson, R. K. White, W. U. Savage, and R. Ozaki, 1999, Quantifying seismically-induced ground deformation of San Francisco Bay mud [abs.], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 80, p. F708.

Kayen, R. E. Walter A. Barnhardt, Scott Ashford and Kyle Rollins (2000) Non-destructive Measurement by Crosshole Radar Tomography of Soil Density Changes During Liquefaction, Treasure Island, California [abs.], GeoDenver 2000 Conference, Geo Institute, Amer. Soc. Civil Eng. August 5-6, 2000, Denver, CO.

Kayen, R. E., Barnhardt, W.A. Ashford, S.A. and Rollins, K. (2000). Non-destructive Measurement by Crosshole Radar Tomography of Soil Density Changes During Liquefaction, Treasure Island, California, in K. Arulanandan, A. Anandarajah and X.S. Li eds., Computer simulation of Earthquake Effects, Amer. Soc. Civil Eng. Geotechnical Special Publication No. 10, p. 52-65.

Kayen, R. E., Barnhardt, W. A., Ashford, S. and Rollins, K., 2001, Crosshole Radar Tomography for Characterization of Liquefaction-Induced Changes, in Soil Density at Treasure Island, San Francisco Bay, California, USA, Proc. of the Annual Conference, Japanese Geotechnical Society, Tokushima City, Shikoku, Japan, 2001.

Kayen, R. E., W. A. Barnhardt, Scott Ashford, Kyle Rollins, D. L. Minasian, and B. A. Carkin, High-resolution crosshole radar tomography; application to liquefaction-induced changes in soil on Treasure Island, U.S. Geological Survey. Professional Paper 1630. p. 3-10.

Kayen, R.E., Barnhardt, W.A, Fumal, T.F., Carkin, B. and Minasian, D., 1999, Radar Imagery of Fault Breaks in Soil: San Andreas and Hayward Faults, Central California [abs.], Seismological Research Letters, V. 70 (2), p. 231.

Kayen. RE, Barnhardt, WA, Monahan, P, Clague, J, Christian, H (2000) Potential Impacts of Cascadia-Margin Earthquakes on the Fraser River (Vancouver) and Duwamish River Deltas (Seattle) [abs.], GSA PENROSE Conference, Seaside, Oregon.

Kayen, R.E, W. A. Barnhardt, and S. P. Palmer, 1999, Geomorphological and geotechnical issues affecting the seismic slope stability of the Duwamish River delta, Port of Seattle, Washington, in, W. M. Elliott and P. McDonough, eds., Optimizing Post-Earthquake Lifeline System Reliability, Am. Soc. Civil Eng., Lifeline Earthquake Engineering Monograph No. 16, p. 482-492.

Kayen, R. E., B. D. Edwards, and H. J. Lee, 1999, Nondestructive laboratory measurement of geotechnical and geoacoustic properties through intact core-liner, Nondestructive and Automated Testing for Soil and Rock Properties, ASTM Special Technical Publication-1350, W. A. Marr, and C. E. Fairhurst, eds., Am. Soc. for Testing and Materials, p. 83-94.

Kayen, R.E., Lee, H.J., and Hein, J.R. (2002) Influence Of The Portuguese Bend Landslide On The Character Of The Effluent-Affected Sediment Deposit, Palos Verdes Margin, Southern California, Continental Shelf Research 22 (2002) 911-922.

Kayen, R.E. and Mitchell, J.K., 1999, Closure for Assessment of Liquefaction Potential During Earthquakes by Arias Intensity, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Amer. Soc. Civil Eng. Vol. 125, No. 7., p. 626-629.

Kayen, R. and Ozaki, R. (2000) Modeling Earthquake-Induced Ground Deformation in Estuarine Soil, Proc. of the Joint Workshop on US-Japan Cooperative Research in Urban Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, January 6-7, 2000: Risk Analysis and Advanced Technologies for Infrastructures. Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, p. 9-15.

Kayen, R.E. and Ozaki, R (2001) Multi-directional Displacement of Compliant Ground Under Seismic Loads, Proc., International Conference on Landslides-Causes, Impacts and Countermeasures, United Engineering Foundation, Davos Switzerland, June 17-21. p.376-385.

Kayen, R. E., and R. Ozaki, 2000, Seismic shear deformation of compliant fine-grained soil [abs.], Seismological Research Letters, v. 71, p. 221.

Kayen, R.E., Ozaki, R, Tanaka, Y., and Takada, S. (2001) Multi-directional Displacement of Compliant Soil, Proceedings of the 26th Japanese Society of Civil Engineers Earthquake Engineering Symposium, August 1-3, 2001, Sapporo, Hokkaido Japan, p. 693-696.

Kayen, R.E., Ozaki, R., Thompson, E., Barnhardt, W.A., Minasian, D., and Carkin, B. (2000) Permanent Displacement Response Spectra [abs.], Amer. Geophys. Union. Dec. 2000, San Francisco, CA.

Kayen, Robert, Nicholas Sitar, Gary Carver, Brian Collins, Robb Moss, 2002, Geotechnical Reconnaissance of the 3 November 2002, Mw 7.9, Denali - Earthquake, Alaska, abs. S72F-1330, Amer. Geophys. Union. Dec. 2002, San Francisco, CA.

Kayen, Tanaka, Cetin, Hayashi, Minasian, Seed, Tokimatsu, and Suzuki, 2002, Surface Wave Investigation and Analysis of Earthquake-Induced Liquefaction Sites in Asia, Amer. Geophys. Union. Dec. 2000, San Francisco, CA.

Lyon, C.J., ten Brink, U., Nealon, J., Danforth, W., and Kayen, R., 2003, Archive of datasonics SIS-1000 Chirp subbottom data collected during USGS cruise K-1-95-PS, Lake Washington, WA, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-31. [Online summary]

Lyon, C.J., ten Brink, U., Nealon, J., Danforth, W., and Kayen, R., 2003, Archive of datasonics SIS-1000 Chirp subbottom data collected during USGS cruise K-1-95-PS, Puget Sound, Sate of Washington, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-318. [Online summary]

McCarthy, J., P. E. Hart, R. Anima, D. Oppenheimer, and T. Parsons, 1996, Seismic evidence for faulting in the western Sacramento Delta region, Pittsburgh, California, USGS Open File Report, 96-267, pp. 134-143.

McCarthy, J. and T. Parsons, 1994, Insights into the kinematic Cenozoic evolution of the Basin and Range-Colorado Plateau transition from coincident seismic refraction and reflection data, Geological Society of America Bulletin, 106, pp. 747-759. [Printable article (1.5 Mb)]

Michael, A. J., Ross, S. L., Schwartz, D. P., Hendley, J.W. III, and Stauffer, P. H., 1999, Understanding earthquake hazards in the San Francisco Bay Area: Major quake likely to strike between 2000 and 2030, USGS Fact Sheet 152-99. [View online]

Michael, A. J., Ross, S. L., Simpson, R. W., Zoback, M.L., Schwartz, D. P., Blanpied, M.L., and Working Group 2002, 2003, edited by Hendley, J.W. III, and Stauffer, P. H, Understanding earthquake hazards in the San Francisco Bay Area: Is a powerful quake likely to strike in the next 30 years?, USGS Fact Sheet 039-03. [View online]

Michael, Andrew J., Stephanie L. Ross, and Heidi D. Stenner, 2002, Displaced rocks, strong motion, and the mechanics of shallow faulting associated with the 1999 Hector Mine, California, Earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 92, No. 4, pp. 1561-1569.

Mikhailov, V., T. Parsons, R. Simpson, 2000, Toward integration of basin analysis and rheological modeling: Thermal state and rheology of the lithosphere of the Great Valley, California [abs.], European Geophysical Society Annual Meeting, Nice, France.

Mitchell, J.K., Green, R.A., and Kayen, R.E., 1999, Energy-Based Analysis of Soil Liquefaction for Ground Improvement [abs.], ASCE Specialty Conference on Emerging Technologies in Civil engineering, p. 22.

Miyata, T., Y. Tanaka, R. Kayen, S. Takada, and B. J. Shih. Ground-Penetrationg Radar Image of the 1999 Rupture in Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan, International Workshop on Physics of Active Fault, February 26-27, 2002 at NIED, Tsukuba, Japan

Molzer, P.C., ten Brink, U.S., Fisher, M.A., Brocher, T.M., Creager, K.C. and Crosson, R.S,, Seismic structure of Seattle Fault, Seattle Basin, and Kingston Arch, Washington [abs.], EOS, v. 80, no. 46-supplement, p. F762.

Ozaki, R, Takada, S. and Kayen, R, 2001, Multi-directional Newmark Sliding Analysis with Compliant Materials, Japanese Jour. of Struct. Engrg. 47(3) 571-578.

Ozturk, H., H. Koral, and E. L. Geist, 2000, Intra-Basinal Water Movements Induced by Faulting: The August 17, 1999 Golcuk (Izmit Bay) Earthquake (Mw=7.4), Marine Geology, v. 170, p. 263-270.

Parsons, T., 2005, A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquake triggering, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L04302, doi:10.1029/2004GL021811. [Online summary] [Printable article (270 Kb)]

Parsons, T. (editor), in press, 2002, Crustal structure of the coastal and marine San Francisco Bay region, U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper, 1658, (7 chapters). [Online article]

Parsons, T., 2001, Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes, [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 82, p.F891.

Parsons, T., 2002, Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes; Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone, Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 2199, doi:10.10292001JB000646. [Printable article (2.8 Mb)] ['Editor's Choice' at Science Magazine (270 kb)]

Parsons, T., 2002, Nearly frictionless faulting from unclamping in long-term interaction models, Geology, v. 30, p. 1063-1066. [Printable article (480 kb)]

Parsons, T., 1998, Normal stress dependency of fault seismicity triggered by the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake [abs.], Southern California Earthquake Center workshop on earthquake Stress Triggering, Carmel CA.

Parsons, T., 2002, Post-1906 stress recovery of the San Andreas fault system from 3-D finite element analysis, Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 2162, doi:10.1029/2001JB001051. [Printable article (1.2 Mb)] ['Journal Highlights' at EOS (175 kb)]

Parsons, T., 2004, Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, doi:10.1029/2001JB002667. [Online summary] [Online abstract] [Printable article (2.3 Mb)]

Parsons, T., 1998, Seismic-reflection evidence that the Hayward fault extends into the lower crust of the San Francisco Bay area, California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 88, 1212-1223.

Parsons, T., 2005, Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations. Journal of Geophysical Research., Vol. 110, B05S02, doi:10.1029/2004JB003190, 2005 [Online summary] [Printable article (2.0 Mb)]

Parsons, T., 2000, Stress distribution and loading rates on the San Andreas and other San Francisco Bay area faults from a 3-D finite element analysis, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 81, p. F920.

Parsons, T., 1995, The Basin and Range Province, in K. Olsen ed., Continental Rifts: evolution, structure and tectonics, Amsterdam, Elsevier, pp. 277-324,.

Parsons, T., A. Barka, S. Toda, R. S. Stein, and J. H. Dieterich, 2000, Influence of the 17 August Izmit earthquake on seismic hazards in Istanbul, in Barka, A., Kozaci, O., Akyuz, S. and Altunel, E., eds., The 1999 Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes: preliminary results, ITU publication, Istanbul, Turkey, ISBN 975561-182-7, p. 295-310. [Online article][Printable article (632kb)]

T. Parsons, R. J. Blakely, and T. M. Brocher, 2001, A simple algorithm for sequentially incorporating gravity observations in seismic traveltime tomography, International Geology Review 43, pp. 1073-1086, 2001. (Also in Geological Society of America Special Publication, in press, 2002.) [Printable article (2.9 Mb)]

Parsons, T., R. J. Blakely, and T. M. Brocher, 2001, A simple algorithm for sequentially incorporating Bouguer gravity to enhance seismic traveltime tomography: application to the upper crustal structure in Puget Lowland, Washington, [abs]: The lithosphere of western North America and its geophysical characterization, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, p. 46.

Parsons, T., R. J. Blakely, and T. M. Brocher, 2001, A simple algorithm for sequentially incorporating gravity observations in seismic traveltime tomography, International Geology Review, 43, 1073-1086, and Geological Society of America Special Publication, in press 2002.

Parsons, T., T. R. Bruns, and R. Sliter, Structure and mechanics of the San Andreas—San Gregorio fault junction, San Francisco, California, G3 (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems), Volume 6, Number 1, ISSN: 1525-2027, Q01009, doi:10.1029/2004GC000838. [Online summary] [Printable article (1.4 Mb)]

Parsons, T., N. I. Christensen, and H. G. Wilshire, 1995, Velocities of southern Basin and Range xenoliths: Insights on the nature of lower crustal reflectivity and composition, Geology, 23, pp. 129-132. [Printable article (390 kb)]

Parsons, T., and D. S. Dreger, 2000, Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 81, p.F859.

Parsons, T., and D. Dreger, 2000, Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California,, Geophys. Res. Lett., v. 27, p. 1949-1952. [Online article]

Parsons, T., E. Geist, R. Jachens, R. Sliter, and B. Jaffe, 2003, Effects of Hayward fault interactions with the Rodgers Creek and San Andreas faults, [abs]: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 84.

Parsons, T., and P. E. Hart, 1998, Dipping strike-slip faults revealed beneath San Francisco Bay, California: No cause for detachment, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 79, p. F828.

Parsons, T., and P. E. Hart, 1998, Reflections from a deep right-lateral strike-slip fault zone [abs.], 8th International Symposium on Deep Reflection Imaging of the Continents and their Margins, Barcelona, Spain.

Parsons, T., and P. E. Hart, 1999, Dipping San Andreas and Hayward faults revealed beneath San Francisco Bay, California, Geology, v. 27, p. 839-842.[Printable article (380 kb)]

Parsons, T., P. E. Hart, and J. McCarthy, 1998, Deep seismic investigations in the San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Bay, California [abs.], , 10th annual IRIS workshop, University of California, Santa Cruz.

Parsons, T., J. M. Howie and G. A. Thompson, 1992, Seismic constraints on the nature of lower crustal reflectors beneath the extending southern transition zone of the Colorado Plateau, Arizona, J. Geophys. Res., 97, pp. 12391-12407.

Parsons, T. and J. McCarthy, 1996, Crustal and upper mantle velocity structure of the Salton Trough, southeast California, Tectonics, 15, pp. 456-471. [Printable article (6.2 Mb)]

Parsons, T. and J. McCarthy, The active southwest margin of the Colorado Plateau: Uplift of mantle origin, Geological Society of America Bulletin, 107, pp. 139-147, 1995. [Printable article (644 kb)]

Parsons, T., J. McCarthy, W. M. Kohler, C. J. Ammon, H. M. Benz, J. A. Hole and E. E. Criley, 1996, The crustal structure of the Colorado Plateau, Arizona: Application of new long-offset seismic data analysis techniques, J. Geophys. Res., 101, pp. 11,173-11,194. [Printable article (35.3 MB)]

Parsons, T., J. McCarthy, and G. A. Thompson, 2001, Contrasting crustal response to extreme extension in the southern Basin and Range Province, [abs]: The lithosphere of western North America and its geophysical characterization, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, p. 26.

Parsons, T., J. McCarthy, and G. A. Thompson, 2001, Very different crustal response to extreme extension in the southern Basin and Range and Colorado Plateau transition, in, Erskine, M. C., Faulds, J. E., Bartley, J. M., and Rowley, P. D., editors, American Association of Petroleum Geologists Pacific Section Guidebook, GB 78, 291-304. [Printable article (3.1 Mb)]

Parsons, T., N. H. Sleep and G. A. Thompson, 1992, Host rock rheology controls on the emplacement of tabular intrusions: Implications for underplating of continental crust, Tectonics, 11, pp. 1348-1356.

Parsons, T., Sliter, R., Geist, E. L., Jachens, R. C., Jaffe, B. E., Foxgrover, A., Hart, P. E., and McCarthy, J.: 2003, Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault step-over, San Francisco Bay, California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 93, 2187-2200. [Online summary] [Printable article (3.6 Mb)]

Parsons, T., and R.S. Stein, 1999, Impact of rate/state fault interaction calculations on earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay area, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 80, p. F687.

Parsons, T., R.S. Stein, R. W. Simpson, and P. A. Reasenberg, 1999, Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: a comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults, Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 104, p. 20,183-20,202.

Parsons, T. and G. A. Thompson, 1993, Does magmatism influence low-angle normal faulting?, Geology, 21, pp. 247-250. [Printable article (448 kb)]

T. Parsons and G. A. Thompson, The role of magma overpressure in suppressing earthquakes and topography: Worldwide examples, Science, 253, pp. 1399-1402, 1991. [Printable article (1.3 Mb)]

T. Parsons, G. A. Thompson, and N. H. Sleep, 1994, Mantle plume influence on the Neogene uplift and extension of the U.S. western Cordillera?, Geology, 23, pp. 83-86. [Printable article (339 kb)]

Parsons, T., G.A. Thompson, and R. P. Smith, 1998, More than one way to stretch: A tectonic model for extension along the plume track of the Yellowstone hotspot and adjacent Basin and Range Province, Tectonics, 17, p. 221-234. [Printable article (18.2 Mb)]

Parsons, T., S. Toda, R.S. Stein, A. A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, 1999, Seismic hazards in the Marmara Sea region resulting from the August 17, 1999 Izmit earthquake, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 80, p. F665.

Parsons, T., S. Toda, R. S. Stein, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, 2000, Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation [abs.], NATO Advanced Research Seminar: Integration of Earth Sciences Research on the 1999 Turkish and Greek Earthquakes and Needs for Future Cooperative research, Istanbul, Turkey. [Online article][Printable article in Turkish (213kb)][Printable article in Japanese (1.5Mb)]

Parsons, T., S. Toda, R. S. Stein, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, 2000, Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation, Science, v. 288, p. 661-665 (Also published in Turkish in TUBITAK Journal, May 2000).

Parsons, T., A.M. Tréhu, J. H. Luetgert, K. Miller, F. Killbride, R. E. Wells, M. A. Fisher, E. Flueh, U. S. t. Brink and N. I. Christensen, 1998, A new view into the Cascadia subduction zone and volcanic arc: Implications for earthquake hazards along the Washington margin, Geology, 26, pp. 199-201. [Printable article (356 kb)]

Parsons, T., R.E. Wells, E. Flueh, U. S. ten Brink, and M. A. Fisher, 1999, Three-dimensional velocity structure of Siletzia and other accreted terranes in the Cascadia fore arc of Washington, Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 104, p. 18,015-18,039. [Printable article (21.0 MB)]

Parsons, T. and M. L. Zoback, 1997, Three-dimensional upper crustal velocity structure beneath San Francisco Peninsula, California, J. Geophys. Res., 102, pp. 5,473-5,490.

Pecher, I., ten Brink, U. and Zhang, J., 1999, Refraction/reflection tomography of wide-angle seismic data from the Cascadia subduction zone, offshore the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, EOS, v. 80, no. 46-supplement, p. F763.

Pecher, I.A., and ten Brink, U.S., 2001, Structure of the Cascadia subduction zone offshore Washington: Results from an onshore/offshore seismic experiment, EOS, v. 82, no. 47-supplement, p. F1149.

Reid, M.E., LaHusen, R.G., and Schmidt, K.M., 2004, Capturing 3-D displacements in active landslides using GPS: Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, v. 26, no. 5, p. 331.

Ross, S. L., Hauksson, E., Michael, A. J., Jones, L. M., 2002, Double-difference relocations of the 1986 Oceanside sequence: a northeast dipping wedge with a possible down-dip rupture [abs.], Seisomological Research Letters, v. 73, p. 263.

Ross, S.L., Michael, A.J., Ellsworth, W.L. , Julian, B.R., Klein, F., Oppenheimer, D.H., Richards-Dinger, K., Waldhauser, F., 2000, Effects of initial location error and station distribution on double-difference earthquake relocations: comparing the San Gregorio and Calaveras faults [abs.], Seismol. Res. Lett., v. 72, p. 291.

Ross, S.L., H.F. Ryan, J.L. Chin , R.W. Sliter, J.E. Conrad, P. Dartnell, B.D. Edwards, E.L. Phillips, and F.L. Wong, 2010, The San Andreas fault zone directly offshore Pacifica and Daly City, California: Complex deformation and previously unmapped structures: Seismological Research Letters, Volume 81, No. 2, p. 347.

Ross, Stephanie L., Holly F. Ryan, and Andrew J. Stevenson, 1998, San Gregorio Fault Zone Studies Offshore Half Moon Bay and Monterey Bay, CA [abs.], AGU Fall Meeting, Eos, Transactions, AGU, vol.79.

Ross, Stephanie L., Holly F. Ryan, and Andrew J. Stevenson, 1999, Sidescan Sonar and Seismic Reflection Data Over the San Gregorio Fault Between Pillar Point and Pescadero [abs.], Seismological Research Letters, v. 70, p. 273.

Ross, S. L., Ryan, H. F., and Stevenson, A. J., 1999, A new map of the offshore San Gregorio Fault between Pillar Point and Pescadero, CA [abs.], EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 80 (supplement), p. F1004.

Ryan, H.F., Ross, S.L., and Graymer, R.W., 2002, Earthquakes, faults, and tectonics, in Beyond the Golden Gate--Oceanography, Geology, Biology, and Environmental Issues in the Gulf of the Farallones, edited by Karl, H.A., Chin, J.L., Ueber, E., Stauffer, P.H., and Hendley, J.W., USGS Circular 1189, pp. 37-46

Schmidt, K. M., Reid, M. E., 2005, Rock strength controls on landsliding along the Big Sur Coast, CA, Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs Vol. 37, No. 4.

Schmidt, K.M. and Reid, M.E., 2002, Deep-seated landsliding and rock mass strength along the Big Sur coast, CA: EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 83, n. 47, p. F551.

Simpson, R. W., T. Parsons, R. S. Stein, and P. A. Reasenberg, 1998, Normal stress sensitivity of southern San Francisco Bay area faults, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 79, p. F594.

Song, Jianli, Uri ten Brink, Robert Bucknam, 2003, Rupture parameters for the pre-historic Seattle Fault earthquake from modeling shoreline uplift, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, v. 84 (46-suppl.), p. F1091.

Stein, R. S., A. Barka, S. Toda, T. Parsons, and J. H. Dieterich, 2000, The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence on the North Anatolian fault [abs.], NATO Advanced Research Seminar: Integration of Earth Sciences Research on the 1999 Turkish and Greek Earthquakes and Needs for Future Cooperative research, Istanbul, Turkey.

Stein, R. S., T. Parsons, S. Toda, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, 2000, Looking Beyond Izmit's Fate to Istanbul's Future: Assessing the Odds of Large, Damaging, Earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, [abs], EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 81, p.F837.

Stein, R., S. Toda, W. Bakun, M. Shishikura, M. Nyst, T. Nishimura, F. Pollitz, K. Satake, T. Parsons, Y. Okada, W. Thatcher, M. Guatteri, and S. Bozkurt, 2004, Goals and progress of a probabilistic hazard analysis for the Kanto region, NIED Workshop for earthquake hazard reduction in Kanto, Japan.

Stein, R. S., S. Toda, A. A. Barka, T. Parsons, and J. H. Dieterich, 2000, The role of stress transfer in the 1999 M=7.4 Izmit and M=7.2 Duzce earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault, [abs], Active Fault Research for the new Millennium, Proceedings of the Hokudan International Symposium and School on Active Faulting, Hokudan, Japan, p. 475-478.

Stein, R. S., S. Toda, T. Parsons, 2000, Response of the San Andreas to the 1983 Coalinga and 1989 Loma Prieta shocks: A test of stress transfer and interaction probabilities, Tectonic problems of the San Andreas Fault, Stanford University Press, Stanford CA.

Suzuki, Y., K. Tokimatsu, R.E.S. Moss, R.B. Seed, and R.E. Kayen (2003) CPT-Based Liquefaction Field Case Histories from the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu (Kobe) Earthquake, Japan, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research, Geotechnical Engineering Research Report No. UCB/GE-2003/03.

ten Brink, U. S. and Geist, E. L., 2004: Submarine slides north of Puerto Rico and their tsunami potential [abs.]. Caribbean Tsunami Workshop, San Juan, Puerto Rico.

ten Brink, U. S., P. C. Molzer, M. A. Fisher, R. J. Blakely, R. C. Bucknam, T. Parsons, R. S. Crosson, and K. C. Creager, 2002, Subsurface geometry and evolution of the Seattle Fault Zone and the Seattle Basin, Washington, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92, 1737-1753. [Printable article (5.3 Mb)]

ten Brink, U.S., Molzer, P.C., Fisher, M.A., Brocher, T.M., Parsons, T, Crosson, R.S., and Creager, K.C., 1999, Crustal structure beneath Puget Sound, Washington, from coincident seismic refraction and reflection data, Seismological Res. Lett., v. 70, p. 232.

ten Brink, U.S., Shimizu, N., Anton, C., and molzer, P., 1999, Plate deformation at depth under Northern California - Slab stretch or slab gap? Penrose conference on Subduction to strike-slip transitions in plate boundaries, Puerto Plata, Dominmican Republic, Jan. 18-24, 1999.

ten Brink, U.S., Shimizu, N., and Molzer, P., 1999, Plate deformation at depth under California - slab gap or stretched slab? Tectonics, v. 18, 1084-1098.

U.S. Geological Survey (including Tom Parsons), 2000, The Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake of August 17, 1999, U.S. Geol. Surv. Circular, 1193, pp. 1-65. [Online article]

Wessells, S., T. Parsons, and P. Hart, 1999, Future Quakes: Unlocking the mysteries of Bay Area earthquake faults (videotape), U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, OF99-519.

Working Group On California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003, Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2002-2031: USGS Open-File Report 03-214

Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999, Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2000 to 2030 - a summary of findings, USGS Open-File Report 99-517

Cooperators

  • California Institute of Technology/POC: Hauksson, Egill
  • City of Long Beach/POC: Clarke, Donald
  • Incorporated Institutions for Seismology/POC: Ahren, Tim
  • JAMSTEC/POC: Hirata, Kenji
  • Japan/Kyushu University/POC: Yoshioka, Shoichi
  • Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory/POC: Schaff, David
  • Minerals Management Service (MMS)/POC: Mayerson, Drew
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/POC: Gonzalez, Frank
  • Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries/POC: Priest, George
  • Oregon State University/POC: Yeats, Robert
  • Puerto Rico Seismic Network/POC: Von Hillebrandt-Andrade, Christa
  • Veneco Corporation/POC: Christensen, Karen
  • San Diego State University/POC: Rockwell, Thomas
  • Southern California Earthquake Center/POC: Okaya, David
  • Stanford University/POC: George Thomson, Marleen Nyst
  • University of California, Santa Barbara/POC: Sorlien, Chris
  • University of California, Santa Barbara/POC: Nicholson, Craig
  • University of Puerto Rico/POC: Asencio, Eugenio
  • University of Puerto Rico/POC: Huerfano, Victor
  • Virginia Tech/POC: Mitchell, J
  • Washington Emergency Management/POC: Crawford, George

 

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