USGS - science for a changing world

Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes and Earthquake Effects

See also:

Start/End Dates

10/1/2011 - 9/30/2018

Location

  1. Southern California Borderlands
  2. central and northern California
  3. Pacific Northwest
  4. Alaska
  5. Hawaii and Pacific Territories

Researchers

Tasks

Earthquake and tsunami forecast methods and applications

The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow. Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.

Geoengineering effects on site amplification, ground failure, and landslides: See Global Geoengineering Research.

Modeling of landslide sourced tsunamis

Kinematic modeling of complex fault systems

SAFRRScience Application for Risk Reduction

Products

Cover from SAFRR Fact Sheet

Cover from USGS Fact Sheet 20133081, The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario—Improving Resilience for California

SAFRR — Science Application for Risk Reduction: http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/safrr/

Carkin, B.A., and Kayen, R.E., 2013, Settlement of the USS Arizona, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5096, 153 p., URL: http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5096/.

Geist, E.L., 2014, Explanation of Temporal Clustering of Tsunami Sources Using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 104 no. 4, pp. 2091–2103, doi:10.1785/0120130275.

Geist, E.L., 2012, Near-field tsunami edge waves and complex earthquake rupture: Pure and Applied Geophysics, Online First, May 22, 2012, doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0491-7

Geist, Eric L., Chaytor, Jason D., Parsons, Tom, and ten Brink, Uri, 2013, Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates: Geosphere, v. 9; no. 2; p. 287–298; doi: 10.1130/GES00829.1

Geist, E., and Lynett, P., 2014, Source Processes for the Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Hazards: Oceanography, v. 27 no. 2, pp. 86–93, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2014.43.

Geist, E.L., and Oglesby, D.D., 2014, Earthquake Mechanism and Seafloor Deformation for Tsunami Generation, in, Beer, M., Kougioumtzoglou, I.A., Patelli, E., Au, I.S.-K. (Eds.). Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 1–17, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_296-1.

Geist, Eric L., and Parsons, Tom, 2011, Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence: Geophysical Journal International (2011) 187, 497–509, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05160.x

Geist, E.L., and Parsons, T., 2014, Undersampling power-law size distributions: Effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards: Natural Hazards, 31 p., doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-1024-0, download PDF (4.1 MB)

Geist, E.L., ten Brink, U.S., Gove, M., 2014, A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis: Natural Hazards, v. 74 no. 1, pp. 123–142, doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1294-1.

Kayen, R.E., Carkin, B.A., Allen, T., Collins, C., McPherson, A., and Minasian, D., 2015, Shear-wave velocity and site-amplification factors for 50 Australian sites determined by the spectral analysis of surface waves method: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014-1264, 118 p., doi: 10.3133/ofr20141264.

Kayen, R.E., Carkin, B.A., Corbett, S.C., Zangwill, A., Estevez, I., and Lai, L., 2015, Shear wave velocity and site amplification factors for 25 strong-motion instrument stations affected by the M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 23, 2011: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015-1099, doi: 10.3133/ofr20151099.

Kayen, R., Moss, R., Thompson, E., Seed, R., Cetin, K., Kiureghian, A., Tanaka, Y., Tokimatsu, K., 2013, Shear-Wave Velocity–Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of Seismic Soil Liquefaction Potential: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, v. 139 no. 3, pp. 407–419, doi: 10.1061/(Asce)Gt.1943-5606.0000743, download PDF.

Kirby, S., Scholl, D., von Huene, R., and Wells, R., 2013, Alaska earthquake source for the SAFRR tsunami scenario, chap. B, in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., eds., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1170, 40 p.

Parsons, T., 2012, Paleoseismic interevent times interpreted for an unsegmented earthquake rupture forecast: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 39, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052275, download PDF, 669kb

Parsons, T., R. Console, G. Falcone, M. Murru, and K. Yamashina, 2012, Comparison of characteristic and Gutenberg-Richter models for time-dependent M≥7.9 earthquake probability in the Nankai-Tokai subduction zone, Japan: Geophysical Journal International, v. 190, p. 1673-1688, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05595.x

Parsons, T., E. H. Field, M. T. Page, and K. Milner, 2012, Earthquake rupture connections on mapped California faults ranked by calculated static linking stresses: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 102 no. 6 p. 2667-2676, doi: 10.1785/0120110349, download PDF (601kb)

Parsons, T., and E. L. Geist, 2012, Were global M≥8.3 earthquake time intervals random between 1900-2011?: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 102, p. 1583-1592, doi:10.1785/0120110282, download PDF (791kb)

Parsons, T., Geist, E.L., Ryan, H.F., Lee, H.J., Haeussler, P.J., Lynett, P., Hart, P.E., Sliter, R., Roland, E., 2014, Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez: 1964 Alaska landslide tsunamis: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, v. 119 no. 11, pp. 8502–8516, doi:10.1002/2014jb011514.

Parsons, T., J. O. Kaven, A. A. Velasco, and H. Gonzalez-Huizar, 2012, Unraveling the apparent magnitude threshold of remote earthquake triggering using full wave-field surface wave simulation: Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems (G3), v. 13, doi: 10.1029/2012GC004164, download PDF (2.4 MB)

Parsons, Tom, Yosihiko Ogata, Jiancang Zhuang, and Eric L. Geist, 2012, Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests: Geophysical Journal International v. 188, 1425–1440, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x

Parsons, T., Segou, M., and Marzocchi, W., 2014, The global aftershock zone: Tectonophysics, v. 618, pp. 1–34, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2014.01.038, download PDF.

Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., 2013, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1170 and California Geological Survey Report 229, 897 pp.

Ross, S.L., Jones, L.M., Miller, K., Porter, K.A., Wein, A., Wilson, R.I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero, J.C., Brosnan, D.M., Bwarie, J.T., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L.A., Kirby, S.H., Knight, W.R., Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C.E., Nicolsky, D.J., Perry, S.C., Plumlee, G.S., Real, C.R., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E., Thio, H., Titov, V.V., Whitmore, P.M., and Wood, N.J., 2013, The SAFRR tsunami scenario--Improving resilience for California: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2013-3081, 4 p.

Ross, S.L., Jones, L.M., Miller, K., Porter, K.A., Wein, A., Wilson, R.I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero, J.C., Brosnan, D.M., Bwarie, J.T., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L.A., Kirby, S.H., Knight, W.R., Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C.E., Nicolsky, D.J., Perry, S.C., Plumlee, G.S., Real, C.R., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E., Thio, H., Titov, V.V., Whitmore, P.M., and Wood, N.J., 2013, SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario—Executive Summary and Introduction: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1170-A, in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., eds., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1170, 17 p.

Ryan, K.J., Geist, E.L., Barall, M., and Oglesby, D.D., 2015, Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 42 no. 16, 6599–6606 p., doi:10.1002/2015gl064507.

Scholl, D.W., Kirby, S.H., von Huene, R., Ryan, H., Wells, R.E., and Geist, E.L., 2015, Great (≥Mw8.0) megathrust earthquakes and the subduction of excess sediment and bathymetrically smooth seafloor: Geosphere, v. 11 no. 2, pp. 236–265, doi:10.1130/GES01079.1.

ten Brink, U.S., Chaytor, J.D., Geist, E.L., Brothers, D.S., Andrews, B.D., 2014, Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin: Marine Geology, v. 353, pp. 31–54, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2014.02.011.

The SAFRR Tsunami Modeling Working Group, 2013, Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario—Generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors, chap. D, in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1170, 136 p.

Thompson, E.M., Carkin, B., Baise, L.G., and Kayen, R.E., 2014, Surface wave site characterization at 27 locations near Boston, Massachusetts, including 2 strong-motion stations: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014-1232, 27 p., doi:10.3133/ofr20141232.

 

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