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Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center

PCMSC Seminar Series

Upcoming Seminar

Photo of speaker.Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012

Nate Mantua, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA/NMFS

Wed., September 10th at 2:00PM

ABSTRACT

Over the past century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of approximately 0.5 to 1°C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST and SAT, this study investigates NE Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with strongest trends observed from 1910-20 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900-2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural, internally-generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012, and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.


For more information, please call (831) 460-7435

 

Directions and parking


View USGS PCMSC Seminar Series Directions in a larger map

From the San Francisco Bay Area:
Take your favorite highway to Hwy 17 South to Hwy 1
At the Hwys 17+1 merge, keep right
Follow signs to “Hwy 1 North, Half Moon Bay, UC Santa Cruz”
Stay on Hwy 1 North (keep in right-most lanes)
Hwy 1 is also named Mission St. — Follow Mission for about 2 miles
At the Western Drive stop light, turn left onto Western Drive
The building right in front of you is the
USGS Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center
2885 Mission St. Extension
at the intersection of Western and Mission St. Extension

From the south coast:
Take Hwy 1 North to west Santa Cruz
At the Western Drive stop light, turn left onto Western
The building right in front of you is the USGS Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center, at the intersection of Western and Mission St. Extension

From the north coast:
Take Hwy 1 South to west Santa Cruz
At the Western Drive stop light, turn right onto Western
The building right in front of you is the
USGS Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center
2885 Mission St. Extension
at the intersection of Western and Mission St. Extension

Parking:
You may park in the parking lot located on the NE corner of Western Drive and Mission St. Extension
Limited parking is available along Mission St. Extension and along Natural Bridges Drive
Entrance to PCMSC is at 2885 Mission St. Extension (small green star with arrow, on the map), at the intersection of Western and Mission St. Extension

 

How to find the PCMSC Santa Cruz
Seminar Room

Schematic shows how to get to the PCMSC seminar room.

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URL: http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/seminar/
Page Contact Information: Laura Zink Torresan
Page Last Modified: 1 September 2014 (lzt)