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Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center

Staff Page for Eric Geist

Photo of Eric GeistCurrent Research

  1. Tsunami probability, generation, and earthquake mechanics
  2. Non-linear modeling of geologic processes
  3. Chaos & complexity in coastal and marine geology

Selected Publications

Probability of Tsunamis and Tsunami Sources

Geist, E. L., J. D. Chaytor, T. Parsons, and U. ten Brink, 2013, Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates, Geosphere, v. 9, p. 287-298, doi:10.1130/GES00829.1

Parsons, T., Y. Ogata, J. Zhuang, and E. L. Geist, 2012, Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests, Geophys. J. Int., v. 188, p. 1425-1440, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x

Zoback, M. L., E. L. Geist, J. Pallister, D. Hill, S. Young, and W. McCausland, 2013, Advances in natural hazard science and assessment, 1963-2013, in The Impact of the Geological Sciences on Society, edited by M. E. Bickford, Geological Society of America Special Paper 501, Boulder, CO, p. 81-154

Parsons, T., and Geist, E.L., 2012, Were global M≥8.3 earthquake time intervals random between 1900-2011?: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 102, p. 1583-1592, doi:10.1785/0120110282. [Download PDF (744 kb)]

Geist, E.L., 2012, Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, Event Statistics, and Inter-Event Triggering: Advances in Geophysics, v. 53, p. 35-92, doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-380938-4.00002-1

Geist, E.L., and Parsons, T., 2011, Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence: Geophysical Journal International, v. 187, p. 497-509, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05160.x [Download PDF (875 kb)]

Geist, E.L., 2009, Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup, Advances in Geophysics, v. 51, p. 107-169, doi:10.1016/S0065-2687(09)05108-5

Geist, E.L., and Parsons, T., 2009, Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Marine Geology, v. 264, p. 98-108, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2008.08.005

Geist, E.L., Parsons, T., ten Brink, U.S., and Lee, H.J., 2009, Tsunami Probability, in Bernard, E.N., and Robinson, A.R., eds., The Sea, v. 15: Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Press, p. 93-135 [Download PDF (2.0 MB)]

González, F.I., Geist, E.L., Jaffe, B.E., Kânoglu, U., Mofjeld, H.O., Synolakis, C.E., Titov, V.V., Arcas, D., Bellomo, D., Carlton, D., Horning, T.S., Johnson, J., Newman, J.C., Parsons, T., Peters, R., Peterson, C., Priest, G.R., Venturato, A.J., Weber, J., Wong, F., and Yalciner, A.C., 2009, Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon for near- and far-field seismic sources, Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 114, doi:10.1029/2008JC005132

Parsons, T., and Geist, E.L., 2009, Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg-Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 99, p. 2012-2019, doi:10.1785/0120080069 [Download PDF (446 K)]

Parsons, T., and Geist, E.L., 2009, Tsunami probability in the Caribbean region: Pure and Applied Geophysics, v. 165, p. 2089-1226, doi:10.1007/s00024-008-0416-7 [Download PDF (1.2 MB)]

Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons, 2008, Distribution of tsunami inter-event times, Geophysical Research Letters, v. 35, L02612, doi:101029/102007GL032690 [Download PDF (506 K)]

Geist, E.L., and Parsons, T., 2006, Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards: Natural Hazards, v. 37, p. 277-314, doi:10.1007/s11069-005-4646-z [Download PDF (972 K)]

ten Brink, U.S., Geist, E.L., and Andrews, B.D., 2006, Size distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 33, L11307, doi:10.1029/2006GL026125 [Download PDF (1786 K)]

Geist, E.L., 2005, Local Tsunami Hazards in the Pacific Northwest from Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes, USGS Professional Paper 1661B, 17 p.

Tsunami Generation

Ishii, M., E. Kiser, and E. L. Geist, 2013, Mw 8.6 Sumatran earthquake of 11 April 2012: Rare seaward expression of oblique subduction, Geology, v. 41, p. 319-322, doi:10.1130/G33783.1

Geist, E.L., 2012, Near-field tsunami edge waves and complex earthquake rupture: Pure and Applied Geophysics, doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0491-7.

Geist, E.L., Lynett, P.J., and Chaytor, J.D., 2009, Hydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide, Marine Geology, v. 264, p. 41-52, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2008.09.005.

Wendt, J., Oglesby, D.D., and Geist, E.L., 2009, Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 36, L15303, doi:10.1029/2009GL038295.

Geist, E.L., Titov, V.V., Arcas, D., Pollitz, F.F., and Bilek, S.L., 2007, Implications of the 26 December Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 97, p. S249-S270, doi:10.1785/0120050619. [Download PDF (1785 K)]

Geist, E.L., Titov, V.V., and Synolakis, C.E., 2006, Tsunami: wave of change: Scientific American, v. 294, p. 56-63.

Geist, E.L., Bilek, S.L., Arcas, D., and Titov, V.V., 2006, Differences in tsunami generation between the December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005 Sumatra earthquakes: Earth Planets Space, v. 58, p. 185-193. [Download PDF (5123 K)]

Geist, E.L., and Parsons, T., 2005, Triggering of Tsunamigenic Aftershocks from Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland Earthquake Sequence: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, v. 6, Q10005, doi:10.1029/2005GC000935. [Download PDF (6595 K)]

Hirata, K., Geist, E.L., Satake, K., Tanioka, Y., and Yamaki, S., 2003, Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 108, no. B4, p. ESE 6-1 - ESE 6-15, doi:10.1029/2002JB001976.

Hirata, K., Takahashi, H., Geist, E., Satake, K., Tanioka, Y., Sugioka, H., and Mikada, H., 2003, Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges; the January 28, 2000 Mw 6.8 earthquake off Nemuro Peninsula, Japan: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 208, no. 3-4, p. 305-318, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00040-2.

Parsons, T., Sliter, R., Geist, E. L., Jachens, R. C., Jaffe, B. E., Foxgrover, A., Hart, P. E., and McCarthy, J., 2003, Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault step-over, San Francsico Bay, California: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 93, p. 2187-2200. [Download PDF (3741 K)]

Geist, E.L., 2002, Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 107, p. ESE 2-1 - ESE 2-16, doi:10.1029/2000JB000139. [Download PDF (399 K)]

Geist, E.L., and Zoback, M.L., 2002, Examination of the tsunami generated by the 1906 San Francisco Mw = 7.8 earthquake, using new interpretations of the offshore San Andreas Fault, in Parsons, T., ed., Crustal Structure of the Coastal and Marine San Francisco Bay Region, California: USGS Professional Paper 1658, p. 29-42.

Geist, E.L., and Bilek, S.L., 2001, Effect of depth-dependent shear modulus on tsunami generation along subduction zones: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 28, no. 7, p. 1315-1318.

Geist, E.L., 2000, Origin of the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami: Earthquake or landslide?: Seismological Research Letters, v. 71, no. 3, p. 344-351.

Geist, E.L., and Dmowska, R., 1999, Local tsunamis and distributed slip at the source: Pure and Applied Geophysics, v. 154, p. 485-512. [Download PDF (1465 K)]

Geist, E.L., 1999, Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters: Advances in Geophysics, v. 39, p. 117-209. [Download PDF (4101 K)]

Tectonic Modeling

Geist, E.L., and Andrews, D.J., 2000, Slip rates on San Francisco Bay area faults from anelastic deformation of the continental lithosphere: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 105, no. B11, p. 25,543-25,552. [Download PDF (704 K)]

Geist, E.L., 1996, Relationship between the present-day stress field and plate boundary forces in the Pacific Northwest: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 23, no. 23, p. 3381-3384. [Download PDF (317 K)]

Geist, E.L., and Scholl, D.W., 1994, Large-scale deformation related to the collision of the Aleutian Arc with Kamchatka: Tectonics, v. 13, no. 2, p. 538-560. [Download PDF (1578 K)]

Geist, E.L., Fisher, M.A., and Scholl, D.W., 1993, Large-scale deformation associated with ridge subduction: Geophysical Journal International, v. 115, p. 344-366. [Download PDF (2095 K)]


Web Pages

Tsunamis & Earthquakes

Great Wave off Kanagawa


The Cascadia Megathrust and Tectonic Stress in the Pacific Northwest

Stress diagram of Cascadia Subduction Zone


Contact Information

Mailing Address:

USGS Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center
345 Middlefield Road MS 999
Menlo Park, CA 94025

Office Phone: (650) 329-5457

Fax: (650) 329-5411



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