USGS - science for a changing world

Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Climate Change Impacts to the U.S. Pacific and Arctic Coasts



Barnard, P.L., Hoover, D., Hubbard, D.M., Snyder, A., Ludka, B.C., Allan, J., Kaminsky, G.M., Ruggiero, P., Gallien, T.W., Gabel, L., McCandless, D., Weiner, H.M., Cohn, N., Anderson, D.L., and Serafin, K.A., 2017, Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño: Nature Communications, v. 8, pp. 1–8, doi: 10.1038/ncomms14365.

Gibbs, A.E., and Richmond, B.M., 2017, National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017-1107, 21 p., doi: 10.3133/ofr20171107.

Gibbs, A.E., Ohman, K.A., Coppersmith, R., and and Richmond, B.M., 2017, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S. Canadian border to Icy Cape: U.S. Geological Survey data release, doi: 10.5066/F72Z13N1.

Hejazian, M., Gurdak, J.J., Swarzenski, P., Odigie, K.O., and Storlazzi, C.D., 2017, Land-use change and managed aquifer recharge effects on the hydrogeochemistry of two contrasting atoll island aquifers, Roi-Namur Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands: Applied Geochemistry, v. 80, pp. 58–71, doi: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2017.03.006.

Vitousek, S., Barnard, P.L., and Limber, P., 2017, Can beaches survive climate change? Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, v. 122 no. 4, pp. 1060–1067, doi: 10.1002/2017jf004308.

Vitousek, S., Barnard, P.L., Fletcher, C.H., Frazer, N., Erikson, L., and Storlazzi, C.D., 2017, Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise: Scientific Reports, v. 7 no. 1, 1399 p., doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7.

Vitousek, S., Barnard, P.L., Limber, P., Erikson, L., and Cole, B., 2017, A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, v. 122 no. 4, pp. 782–806, doi: 10.1002/2016JF004065.


CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 storm-hazard projections
U.S. Geological Survey data release and summary of methods, doi: 10.5066/F7T151Q4
— Barnard, P., Erikson, L., Foxgrover, A., O'Neill, A., and Herdman, L.

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, v. 121, doi: 10.1002/2015jc011231, download PDF
—Cheriton, O.M., Storlazzi, C.D., and Rosenberger, K.J.

Identification and classification of very low frequency waves on a coral reef flat
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans, v. 121, doi: 10.1002/2016jc011834
—Gawehn, M., van Dongeran, A., van Rooijen, A., Storlazzi, C., Cheriton, O., and Reniers, A.

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability
Global and Planetary Change, v. 141, pp. 25–38, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.03.009
—Shope, J.B., Storlazzi, C.D., Erikson, L.H., and Hegermiller, C.A.


Barnard, P.L., Short, A.D., Harley, M.D., Splinter, K.D., Vitousek, S., Turner, I.L., Allan, J., Banno, M., Bryan, K.R., Doria, A., Hansen, J.E., Kato, S., Kuriyama, Y., Randall-Goodwin, E., Ruggiero, P., Walker, I.J., and Heathfield, D.K., 2015, Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation: Nature Geoscience, v. 8, pp. 801–807, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2539.

Gibbs, A.E., and Richmond, B.M., 2015, National assessment of shoreline change: historical change along the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape: Open-File Report, 110 p., doi: 10.3133/ofr20151048.

Gibbs, A.E., Nolan, M., and Richmond, B.M., 2015, Evaluating changes to arctic coastal bluffs using repeat aerial photography and structure from-motion elevation models: The Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2015, San Diego CA, May 2015, doi: 10.1142/9789814689977_0080.

Gibbs, A.E., Ohman, K.A., Richmond, B.M., 2015, National assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian border to Icy Cape: Open-File Report, doi: 10.3133/ofr20151030.

Quataert, E., Storlazzi, C., van Rooijen, A., Cheriton, O., and van Dongeren, A., 2015, The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 42, pp. 1–9, doi: 10.1002/2015gl064861.

Storlazzi, C.D., Elias, E.P.L., and Berkowitz, P., 2015, Many Atolls May be Uninhabitable Within Decades Due to Climate Change: Scientific Reports, v. 5 no. 14546, pp. 1–9, doi: 10.1038/srep14546.

Storlazzi, C.D., Shope, J.B., Erikson, L.H., Hegermiller, C.A., and Barnard, P.L., 2015, Future wave and wind projections for United States and United States-affiliated Pacific Islands: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015-1001, 426 p., doi: 10.3133/ofr20151001.


Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
Natural Hazards, v. 74, i. 2, pp. 1095-1125, doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y
P.L. Barnard, M. van Ormondt, L.H. Erikson, J. Eshleman, C. Hapke, P. Ruggiero, P. N. Adams, and A. Foxgrover

Indigenous Community Health and Climate Change: Integrating Biophysical and Social Science Indicators
Coastal Management, Special Issue: Social Sciences in Puget Sound Recovery, v. 42, i. 4, pp. 355-373, doi:10.1080/08920753.2014.923140
J. Donatuto, E.E. Grossman, J. Konovsky, S. Grossman, and L.W. Campbell

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation
Nature Communications, v. 5, doi:10.1038/ncomms4794
— F. Ferrario, M.W. Beck, C.D. Storlazzi, F. Micheli, C.C. Shepard, L. Airoldi

The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean
USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Project Page, doi:10.5066/F7QR4V4C
L. Torresan and C. Storlazzi

Mount Baker lahars and debris flows, ancient, modern and future
(Dashtgard, S., and Ward, B., eds., Trials and tribulations of life on an active subduction zone: Field trips in and around Vancouver, Canada)
Geological Society of America Field Guide 38, p. 33–52, doi:10.1130/2014.0038(03)
D.S. Tucker, K.M. Scott, E.E. Grossman, and S. Linneman


Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—A comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1069, 78 p.
C.D. Storlazzi, P. Berkowitz, M.H. Reynolds, and J.B. Logan

Integration of bed characteristics, geochemical tracers, current measurements, and numerical modeling for assessing the provenance of beach sand in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System
Marine Geology, v. 345, pp. 181–206, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2013.08.007
P.L. Barnard, A.C. Foxgrover, E.P.L. Elias, L.H. Erikson, J.R. Hein, M. McGann,, K. Mizell, R.J. Rosenbauer, P.W. Swarzenski, R.K. Takesue, F.L. Wong, and D.L. Woodrow

Quantifying Landscape Change in an Arctic Coastal Lowland Using Repeat Airborne Lidar
Environmental Research Letters, v. 8, no. 4, #045025, 10 pp., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045025
B.M. Jones, J.M. Stoker, A.E. Gibbs, G. Grosse, V.E. Romanovsky, T.A. Douglas, N.E.M. Kinsman, and B.M. Richmond

Understanding processes controlling sediment transports at the mouth of a highly energetic inlet system (San Francisco Bay, CA)
Marine Geology, v. 345, pp. 207–220, doi: 10.1016/j.margeo.2012.07.003
E.P.L. Elias and J.E. Hansen


A seamless, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the north-central California coast
U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 684, 11 p. and data files
A.C. Foxgrover and P.L. Barnard

Modeling arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected arctic warming
Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Progress Report
L.H. Erikson, A.E. Gibbs, B.M. Richmond, C.D. Storlazzi, B.M. Jones

Synthesis study of an erosion hot spot, Ocean Beach, California (USA)
Journal of Coastal Research, v. 28, no. 4, p. 903–922, doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-11-00212.1
P.L. Barnard, J.E. Hansen, and L.H. Erikson


Nearshore Bathymetric Evolution on a High-Energy Beach During the 2009-10 El Niño Winter
The Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2011, pp. 1390–1403, doi:10.1142/9789814355537_0105
— P.L. Barnard, D. Hoover, and J.E. Hansen

The impact of the 2009-10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, L13604, 7 pp., doi:10.1029/2011GL047707
P.L. Barnard, J. Allan, J.E. Hansen, G.M. Kaminsky, P. Ruggiero, and A. Doria

Shallow stratigraphy of the Skagit River Delta, Washington, USA derived from sediment cores
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1194, p. 123
E.E. Grossman, D.A. George, and A. Lam


Dramatic beach and nearshore morphological changes due to extreme flooding at a wave-dominated river mouth
Marine Geology, v. 271, i. 1-2, pp. 131–148, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2010.01.018
P.L. Barnard and J.A. Warrick

Oblique aerial photography of the Arctic coast of Alaska, Cape Sabine to Milne Point, July 16-19, 2009
USGS Data Series 503, 4 p. and database
A.E. Gibbs and B.M. Richmond


Oblique aerial photography of the Arctic coast of Alaska, Nulavik to Demarcation Point, August 7-10, 2006
U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 436, 6 pp., 4 databases
A.E. Gibbs and B.M. Richmond


OCOF logo

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF)

CoSMoS logo

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

Screen shot from the time-lapse.

Time-lapse photography of Barter Island, Alaska

during three summer months in 2014

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Page Contact Information: Laura Zink Torresan