CoSMoS CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
Above: San Francisco Bay study area
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF). San Francisco Bay is geographically and bathymetrically complex, necessitating many alterations to the methods used on Northern California’s outer coast.
Scenarios within San Francisco Bay are consistent with the full spectrum of SLR (0 to 2 meters, 5 meters) and storms (daily to 100-year return) used on the outer coast. However, storms events used inside the Bay were derived from numerically modeled wind-wave heights driven by down-scaled wind projections derived from one GCM (Geophsyical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] Earth System Model [ESM] 2M).
Changes from CoSMoS 2.0 for implementation within San Francisco Bay include:
Above: Animation of modeled South San Francisco Bay water level during an extreme high-tide event (king tide). m, meters; MSL, mean sea level. [Read disclaimer.]
The results are being directly used in climate change vulnerability studies for Marin County and San Mateo County. Projections from CoSMoS 2.1 are being used in follow-on collaborative USGS studies investigating socio-economic climate impacts and vulnerability throughout the Bay. Results from these analyses should be available by the end of 2015.
Above: Direction of extreme winds (black arrows, wind speed greater than 24 meters/second [m/s]) that produce maximum locally generated waves throughout San Francisco Bay (color shading). h, wave height. [See a larger version; and read disclaimer.]
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.