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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Tsunamis and Earthquakes

USGS PCMSC Tsunami and Earthquake Studies


Tsunami Sources Workshop 2006

Great Earthquake Tsunami Sources:
Empiricism and Beyond Empiricism



Friday - 21 April 2:00 - 7:15 PM

NOTE: The allocated presentation time includes 5 minutes for questions and discussions.

2:00-2:10 PM  Steve Kirby: Welcoming remarks, introductions, and announcements.

Session 1a. Overviews on Sumatra & other megathrust tsunami sources. Willie Lee, Chair.

2:10-2:45   Emile Okal: Lessons from the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunamis.

2:45-3:10   George Plafker: The cataclysmic 2004 tsunami on NW Sumatra -- Preliminary evidence for a splay fault secondary source along the western Aceh Basin

3:10-3:35   Larry Ruff: Seismotectonics of large earthquakes and tsunamigenesis.

3:35-4:00   Seth Stein: Spatial distribution of the largest megathrust earthquakes: Variations in plate tectonic parameters or sampling bias?

Refreshment Break: 4:00 to 4:15

Session 1b. Overviews on Sumatra & other megathrust tsunami sources. Willie Lee, Chair.

4:15-4:40   Steve Kirby: Overview of the 2005 USGS Working Group report on the relative hazards of interplate thrust earthquake sources of the western Pacific.

Session 2. Characterizing shallow subduction earthquake sources. Willie Lee, Chair.

4:40-5:00   Ken Hudnut: Geologic and Geodetic Aspects of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and 2005 Nias-Simeulue Earthquake

5:00-5:20   Geoff Blewitt: Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude using GPS for tsunami warning systems.

5:20-5:40   Barry Hirshorn: Mwp and other rapid estimates of source parameters for tsunami warning.

5:40-6:00   Steve Kirby: Possible complex fault sources near the Japan trench: the 1896 and 1933 tsunamigenic events.

Poster Session and Reception. Dave Scholl, Chair.  6:00-7:15 PM

Oliver G. Lockwood and Hiroo Kanamori: Wavelet Analysis of the Seismograms of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and its Application to Tsunami Early Warning

David D. Oglesby: Thrust Faulting Dynamics

Robb Eric S. Moss and Thaleia Travasarou: Tsunamigenic Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for Subduction Zones

Ruth S. Ludwin and Apela Colorado: Tsunami Whirlpools - observed in 2004 and remembered in First Nations art and myth

H. Bungum et al.: Tsunami hazard and risk assessment along the western coast of Thailand

Aggeliki Barberopoulou: Investigating the Damage Potential of Seiches Initiated by Seismic Wave Motions: A Case Study of the Puget Lowland, Washington State

William Power et al.: Source Models of Tsunamigenic Earthquakes on the Hikurangi Plate Interface

Gene Ichinose et al.: A Comparison Between the Great 1964 Alaska and 2004 Sumatra Earthquake Rupture Models from the Inversion of Seismic, Tsunami, and Geodetic Data

Peter Bormann et al.: Near Real-Time Broadband Body-Wave Magnitudes mB and mBc: Automatic Procedure for Reliable Magnitude Estimates of Strong Earthquakes

Vindell Hsu: Characterizing the Rupture of Large Earthquakes Using IMS Seismic Arrays

Ole Nielsen et al.: The ANUGA Tsunami Inundation Model

Mohamed Chlieh et al.: Asperities and Barriers along the Sumatra Subduction Zone

Optional no-host dinner in downtown Palo Alto: 7:30-9:00 PM

Saturday - 21 April 8:30 AM - 5:00 PM

Session 3. Factors that tend to favor the occurrence of great megathrust earthquakes that spawn big tsunamis. Dave Scholl, Chair.

8:30-8:55   Ray Wells: Coseismic slip in great subduction zone earthquakes and its relation to crustal structure revealed by gravity anomalies.

8:55-9:20   Rick Blakely: Mapping and modeling trench sediments and slope basins.

9:20-9:45   David Scholl: Sediment influx and maximum interplate earthquake size: a reappraisal.

9:45-10:10  Chris Goldfinger: Cascadia Great Earthquake Recurrence: Rupture Lengths, Correlations and Constrained OxCal Analysis of Event Ages.

10:10-10:35 Rob Witter: Paleoseismic limits on rupture length for the Cascadia subduction zone.

Coffee Break: 10:35 to 10:50

Session 4. Shallow structure and mechanics of subduction zones. Dave Scholl, Chair.

10:50-11:15   Roland von Huene: Structure and process in eroding and accreting subduction margins -- New developments based on marine observations.

11:15-11:40   Kelin Wang: Wedge mechanics and tsunamigenic seafloor deformation.

11:40-12:05   Roy Hyndman: A short discussion of controls of maximum magnitude of great earthquakes.

Lunch break: 12:05 to 1:00 -- ordered sack lunch.

Session 5. Observing and modeling tsunamis -- the record and future prospects. Eric Geist, Chair.

1:00-1:30   Philip L.-F. Liu: A sensitivity study of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake fault plane mechanisms.

1:30-2:00   Vasily Titov: Defining tsunami sources for real-time tsunami forecasting.

2:00-2:30    George Priest: Cascadia tsunami sources:  Sensitivity analysis of inundation at Cannon Beach.

2:30-3:00    Chen Ji: Resolving the Trade-off between the Seismic Moment and Fault Dip of Large Subduction Earthquakes and Its Impact on Tsunami Excitation.

3:00-3:30    Eric Geist & David D. Oglesby: Tsunami modeling of complex fault sources.

Refreshment Break: 3:30 to 3:45

Session 6. Open discussion: Summary and future research directions. Steve Kirby, Chair.

3:45-4:10  Willie Lee (Chief Editor): Workshop volume publication details and SeismoArchives at

4:10-4:20  Eric Geist (Recorder): Review of trends and new results.

4:20-5:00   All (Steve Kirby, Moderator): Future directions for research.

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